More and more extreme spot prices in 2026

The electricity market is undergoing a clear shift: price fluctuations are becoming more pronounced and extremes are occurring with increasing frequency. Whereas spot prices used to remain relatively predictable, we are now seeing a shift towards a much more dynamic and erratic pattern.

In the year 2026, 873 negative quarter-hours were recorded up to and including 24 June. The high number of negative prices is a trend that has continued from previous years. In 2025, a total of 519 negative hours were recorded. It is important to note that the spot market switched to quarter-hourly pricing in 2026.

Negative prices occur when the supply of electricity exceeds demand. The rapid growth of renewable energy, and solar power in particular, plays a central role in this phenomenon. On sunny days, electricity is generated in large quantities, often exceeding what can be consumed at that moment. Whereas solar panels used to provide primarily a financial benefit, we now see that periods of high PV generation increasingly coincide with very low or even negative electricity prices. This is partly the result of past policy decisions: through support mechanisms such as green certificates, businesses and households were encouraged to install more capacity than was required for their own consumption.

This evolution should, however, be viewed in perspective. For many years, Belgium had a genuine need for additional renewable generation capacity. These investments helped reduce electricity prices and decrease dependence on fossil fuels and nuclear energy, which proved particularly beneficial during periods of geopolitical uncertainty.

At the same time, this growth is now creating a different kind of challenge. During winter, when solar generation is limited, negative prices remain rare and average electricity prices are higher. From spring onwards, however, the gap between periods of abundant generation and periods of scarcity becomes increasingly pronounced. This is reflected not only in negative prices, but more importantly in a wider spread of prices and greater market volatility.

These growing extremes are becoming particularly visible in 2026. During the June heatwave, electricity prices generally remained positive despite strong solar irradiation, due to exceptionally high demand for electricity for cooling. This even led to a record price of €1,038.25/MWh on 24 June at 20:45. At the other end of the spectrum, a historic low of -€499.29/MWh was recorded on 1 May at 13:30.

The electricity market is therefore evolving towards a system in which not only the volume of renewable energy matters, but above all the extent to which supply and demand are aligned. The traditional logic, where generation adjusts to consumption, is increasingly being replaced by the opposite: consumption will need to adapt to energy availability.

To manage this volatility, flexibility will become crucial. Excess energy must be stored more effectively, and consumption must be shifted to periods of low prices whenever possible. Without these adjustments, the gap between negative and extremely high prices is likely to continue widening. The figures for 2026 clearly demonstrate that the energy transition is not only about increasing renewable generation, but also about using that energy more intelligently—both in terms of when and how it is consumed.

At Elexys, we are evolving alongside these market developments. We are expanding our services with smart energy asset control, in collaboration with the Ghent-based technology company Companion Energy. Through this new service, customers can now have their installations managed in a simple, transparent, and cost-effective way.